Though today Bitcoin (BTC) had a start above $11,000, analysts still have fears of returning to the 2018 U.S. Dollars. Now the bears continue to hold the$12,000 range is the next question in line.
According to Cointelegraph, five factors could help you decide whether this week is bullish or bearish for BTC price action.
The upcoming U.S. election could send the U.S. Dollar back to 2018
Despite being #1 on the market capitalization, Bitcoin remains sensitive to macro phenomena such as the U.S. election this year. Believe it or not, a Democratic win becomes one macro indicator for the U.S. Dollar currency index (DXY).
The market seems sensitive since on Oct. 12 was reported that Joe Biden entered the White House. These might seem an insignificant event in a daily report, but its effects on the markets in advance could drive DXY down to its lows from 2018.
Over the years, Bitcoin has seen a strong inverse correlation with DXY, and fresh lows could thus be a benefit for the holders. In August, $12,500 highs for BTC/USD came in tandem with DXY dipping above 92 points. In 2018 DXY was above 89 — 4% lower than at present.
U.S. dollar currency index six-month chart. Source: TradingView
Europe battles Brexit and the coronavirus.
Coronavirus hit all the markets at the beginning of the year, and its new restrictions across Europe could produce even more economic concerns. The “second wave” puts various countries to impose repeated lockdown-style measures starting this week.
The last-minute Brexit negotiations are playing their role and affect not only the United Kingdom. In the U.S., the stocks are up, with futures gaining 0.25% before the open on Monday. The next is China, where a weakening yuan and investors expect more foreign investment.
Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 three-month chart. Source: Skew
Hash rate high leads to Bitcoin fundamentals.
Last week, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals’ hash rate hit new all-time highs over the weekend. It is suggesting that more computing power than ever dedicated to mining. According to data from the charts, the hash rate hit 155 exa-hashes per second (EH/s). The highs in hash rate and jumps in network difficulty tend to produce Bitcoin price rises later on.
Difficulty shows signs of hash rate new records, and in the short, with the concern is about the next readjustment that will be neither up nor down, just like the last.
Bitcoin seven-day average hash rate one-month chart. Source: Blockchain
Investor sentiment is one of the investor’s best friend. This time, it is slowly firming up when it comes to Bitcoin. The market data indicators show that after August, warnings of overexuberance sparked. The Index was at 52, on Monday, a good indicator since Sep. 21.
These events put investor sentiment in “neutral” territory, a better version compared to the “extreme greed” of August and the “fear” that followed. The closer the Index score gets to the top of its scale from zero to one hundred, its purpose is to show when a market sell-off is due.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index three-month chart. Source: Alternative.me
“Market analysts are optimistic.”
These days everything is making a push on Bitcoin’s price for $11,000, but Bitcoin has his further gains. According to Cointelegraph Markets analysts, the area around $11,000 previously formed a $10,800 “pivot” point.
So far, BTC/USD took $10,800 and another level, $11,150, in the last months, sealing daily and weekly closes above that level and closer to $11,400. And the bullish mood is palpable and makes everyone aims for higher pivots.
Volatility, market momentum, volume make up half, and each factor listed above contribute on their own to influence and present a spectrum data on the Bitcoin market situation.
Let’s hope for the best and stay optimistic about it.
Photo source: Cointelegraph.